The Diamondbacks head into Pittsburgh with Merrill Kelly on the mound, and the right-hander has been the rotation’s best-looking arm since the break on the surface. His post-All-Star ERA sits at 2.70, but the deeper numbers tell a less comfortable story: his FIP is 5.41, more than twice as high, and the strikeout rate that showed up in his final couple of first-half starts has faded.
Kelly’s last two outings have followed the same script almost to the letter. He’s worked five innings in each one, thrown exactly 87 pitches each time, allowed six baserunners in both starts, given up one home run - a solo shot - and struck out three. In other words, the profile is pretty clear heading into today.
Arizona’s broader second-half picture has been uneven too. The club split its first two series after the All-Star break, taking one from the Cardinals and dropping the other in Washington.
That didn’t change much in the standings, even if the Nationals series would have been nice to have. The results were also shaped by the fact that Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake combined for just four major-league starts before that trip, and neither was expected to be part of the rotation this year.
Still, the Diamondbacks are now sending out the front of their rotation in Pittsburgh - at least on paper. The concern is that the early returns since the break have looked very different from the first half.
Eduardo Rodriguez, who was the first-half MVP, has the worst ERA in the rotation since the break at 7.27. He’s only thrown 8.2 innings, so the sample is tiny, but he’s also logged the fewest innings of any starter through two turns in the second half.
If that version of Rodriguez sticks around, it could make life a lot harder for Arizona.
For now, though, it’s Kelly’s turn. And if his day looks like the one he had against the A’s - a 15-5 win - rather than the one against the Cardinals, Arizona will take it.
In Other News...
Ketel Marte Just Sent Diamondbacks Fans Into Panic Mode
Ketel Martes social media activity sent a jolt through Diamondbacks circles this week, after the veteran infielder removed Arizona-related content from his Instagram and unfollowed the team account. For a player who has been one of the clubs most important pieces, any sign of distance tends to get noticed fast, and this one was enough to set off a wave of fan speculation about what it might mean.
Marte has not commented, and neither has the team, leaving the situation to simmer without a public explanation. The intrigue is heightened by the fact that Marte holds 10-and-5 rights, giving him full control over any trade involving him, so even the possibility of movement would require his approval before anything could happen. [Read more 🡒]
Diamondbacks May Have Quietly Avoided A Trade Deadline Gut Punch
The trade deadline can expose just how much a front office is willing to part with, and in this case the Diamondbacks may have come away without paying the kind of price that would have stung. Boston sent Connelly Early to Washington instead, with reports indicating the Red Sox passed on Arizonas interest and ultimately took Curtis Mead in the deal, a choice that suggests they preferred a more established return over whatever the Diamondbacks had on the table.
For Arizona, the real intrigue is what might have been asked for behind the scenes, especially with young bat Ryan Waldschmidt viewed as the sort of prospect another club would covet in a deal for a pitcher like Early. Whether he was ever truly in those conversations is less clear, but the fact that the Red Sox went another direction leaves the Diamondbacks with a small deadline win: they may have sidestepped a painful subtraction without having to test just how far Boston was willing to push them. [Read more 🡒]
Diamondbacks Just Got Pushed Back Into A Familiar Deadline Reality
The Diamondbacks keep finding themselves back in the same place as the deadline gets closer: trying to sort out whether the current pitching mix is sturdy enough for the stretch run. A loss to the Nationals only sharpened that concern, with rookie lefties Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake both taking the ball in consecutive games and both running into trouble. Manager Torey Lovullo has already pointed to the importance of handling critical moments, especially when an offense has just given you a lead or a chance to settle things down.
Geraldo Perdomo has also been speaking openly about the need for a pitching upgrade, which only adds to the sense that Arizona is weighing more than one path as it looks ahead. The club is still evaluating its options, and while there are other fronts to monitor, the rotation question has become hard to ignore. For a team trying to stay in the race, the next move may say as much about its belief in the present as it does about the deadline itself. [Read more 🡒]