Josh Pate isn’t reading Alabama’s Week 8 matchup against Texas A&M as a simple hammer job, even with the Crimson Tide installed as a 14.5-point favorite at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
On his video podcast, the college football analyst called it a “no-feel game” and pointed to the clash of competing impulses around Alabama: the uneasy reaction to what happened last week at Tennessee, and the reminder that Texas A&M has looked rough away from home in SEC play.
“Alabama's favored by 14.5 points, yet you just watched Alabama get completely neutered on the road against Tennessee. So, your default (mindset) is probably, 'I wouldn't lay 14.5 points against air right now...
But then your mind needs to think back just a little bit further. The last two times A&M went on the road in conference play, they got dunked on by LSU, and they got dunked on by Missouri.”
The Aggies lost 35-6 at LSU on Sept. 26 and then fell 27-6 at Missouri in Week 6. Pate also noted Alabama’s long run of home success against unranked opponents, saying the Tide have won 89 straight such games at home. The last loss in that spot, he said, came against Louisiana-Monroe in 2007.
A big part of Pate’s read on this one centers on Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, who enters Week 8 ranked 14th among the SEC’s 16 starting quarterbacks in passing yards with 1,227. He has thrown seven touchdowns and six interceptions, a sharp drop from the quarterback who guided Texas A&M to an 11-1 record and a College Football Playoff berth a year ago.
“If he's not going to do more than he's done, it really doesn't matter how bad Bama looked last week. They'll just get right and then they'll go into the bye week.
Marcel Reed is under 200 yards passing in five of his last six games. If (Texas A&M's) passing game is not a threat here, it'll be boring to watch.
They'll get put away just like they did (against LSU), just like they did against Missouri. He has thrown multiple interceptions a whole lot.
Bama's secondary and defense in general has been excellent at forcing takeaways. They have to find some success rushing the ball, and the problem is they haven't.”
That rushing issue is a problem for both sides. Texas A&M sits ninth in the SEC in rushing yards with 1,128, while Alabama is only two spots ahead at 1,147 after the Tide managed just 54 on the ground in the loss to Tennessee.
Pate said Alabama is walking into the game with some injury concerns, too, including receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams being out, center Racin Delgatty questionable and running back EJ Crowell questionable. Even so, he sees a meaningful difference between Alabama’s offense and the one Texas faces with Arch Manning.
“Alabama's got to find 'it' offensively. Texas has not shown an electric offense at any point this season.
Alabama has, so you're just looking for them to get it back. They're missing their center, their best wide receiver.
EJ Crowell may not play in this game... so yeah, they're banged up, but they have scored in bunches at one point this year.”
Against Tennessee, Alabama’s longest play came on Russell’s 19-yard touchdown run, and the Tide averaged just 2.1 yards per carry. Pate believes the fix starts on the ground.
“I know it's far more complicated than that, but they didn't (lean on the run) and it cost them. It felt like they asked Russell to do too much, and there's no need to ask him to do too much here.
A&M's got the 71st-ranked run defense in the country. They're 10th in passing yards allowed per game, so I think a blind man can see what needs to be done here.
“Also, if you're Bama and you're banged up, don't you want to shorten this thing as much as possible? Unless they get out to an early lead, don't you want to compact this game as much as possible?
So everything just screams run the ball. And if you're forced to punt a few times, so be it.
“It’s shocking, though, that if you have any success there, what that may do to unlock that downfield explosive passing game. Because they did not have a single explosive play (against Tennessee), and that's a far cry from what they looked like just a few weeks prior.”
He also flagged Alabama’s worst third-down showing of the season, a 2-for-13 mark against Tennessee. The Vols finished 6-for-15 on third down.
Even with his concerns about the Tide offense and the 14.5-point spread, Pate still picked Alabama to win. He just doesn’t expect a shootout.
“If you consider how offensively challenged A&M is, and if you consider from a game script perspective how much Alabama is going to want to condense this game and focus on establishing the run, I'm just going under that 50.5,” Pate said.
“I think Alabama will win the game. I'll just go under the 50.5. I don't think this will be the most aesthetically pleasing game of the weekend (but) I'll take Alabama to win.”
Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The game will air on ABC, with Joe Tessitore and Jesse Palmer on the call and Kris Budden reporting from the sidelines. Alabama radio voices Chris Stewart and Tyler Watts will be on the Crimson Tide Sports Network feed, available on SiriusXM channel 84 and The Varsity App.
Alabama enters the game ranked No. 13 in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC.
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